It's been quite a while since I've blogged so I'm going to write a little about everything--old and new.  Let's start with a recap of some of the older stuff.

401k

It's finally starting to look like it has some life again.  My most recent 2Q statement had it up I think around 16% for the year.  For quick comparisons sake, the DJIA started closed '08 at 8776.39 and closed on Friday, July 24th at 9093.24.  While that may not be too impressive, the DJIA lowest for '09 was 6547.05 and we have certainly come a long way from down there.  Since the lowest point around mid March, the DJIA has gone up 2546.19 points.  It is up nearly 39% since its low.  Certainly some optimism has crept back into the market.  I really think that the magic barrier is getting back above 10,000 again.  Once the markets have reached that point, I believe almost everyone will be saying the recovery is in full swing and we're pulling ourselves out of it.  It'll probably take 4-5 years of consistent progress though before we get back up near 14,000 though.  I highly doubt we'll see the bullish markets of the dot-com era for a really long time to come.

Softsys Hosting

Nothing new to report really.  Since I haven't been doing much personal website work or anything like that for a while, I don't have much to say about them.  I've had no problems with their hosting or email going down for any appreciable time.  All is good when there is no news to report I suppose.

Car Industry

Well it looks like I got some predictions (semi) correct.  GM did end up filing for bankruptcy, but they haven't completely folded.  On the other hand, they're jettisoning quite a few of their brands to become a more profitable company focused on a few, select core brands.  Only time will tell, but I'm betting on the refocused GM to stick around for a while longer now.  The certainly won't be a major player any more and I predict some foreign company will eventually gobble them up.  That'll probably happen in another 3-5 years when they've had time to sort themselves out and get back on a firm footing.  They will have to extract themselves from the federal government first I'm guessing.  It may take a while for them to buy back that stock so they're in a position to shop themselves around.

Chrysler did in fact end up merging, but not with whom I predicted.  Fiat is a strange bedfellow to me.  I just don't see how this relationship is going to work.  Chrysler has no sense of direction and their lineup is pretty poor in my opinion.  Fiat builds small cars destined for European and other foreign markets.  They really have nothing in common.  Only time will tell if this deal will work out.  I suspect some private equity firm will buy Chrysler back when the time comes, but that's going to be years away.  Until then, Chrysler will just keep being #3 in the US.

Ford is going to survive.  Unless they misstep and fall flat on their face with their upcoming car lineups, they'll be #1 in the US for quite a while.  When I say #1 in the US, I mean between GM and Ford they'll be on top.  Foreign companies like Toyota, Honda, and VW will all eventually all bubble to the top in US auto sales.  The days when US automakers were #1 in the US and world are over.  Plain and simple.

President Obama's decision to virtually eliminate support for hydrogen cars is going to hurt the US in the long term.  Our reliance on foreign oil is deplorable and promoting "greener" technologies as a short term gap isn't helping.  I call things like hybrid's "greener" because they're not THAT much better than say a hydrogen powered vehicle.  Hybrid's still use gasoline and until we sever that umbilicle cord, we're still hooked on foreign oil.  I really wish he had looked a little farther into the future, something beyond say 5 years and his re-election campaign.  It takes roughly 5 years on a fast-track to design, test, build, and mass produce a new car line.  Less funding for hydrogen car research now likely means we're stuck with hybrids until 2015 or later.  There is one glimmer of hope and that is Shell has recently opened a second hydrogen filling station in New York.  Don't you think it is kind of ironic that Shell is starting to get interested in this technology?

New House

I bought a house.  A new house.  My first house.  It's fantastic!

I started looking back in February when I found out the stimulus package was to include a tax credit for first time home buyers.  At the time, various figures were being proposed anywhere from $7,500 up to $15,000 for buying a home.  I was really hoping for $15,000 which I believe my state senator was pushing for.  Alas I will have to "settle" for just $8,000.  Needless to say that the carrot dangled in front of me was a primary reason to finally take the plunge.  Needless to say, I was one of those people that our government hoped to get off the fence and buy a home.  Job well done!

There is one thing about buying your first home that you don't realize no matter how many people tell you.  You will be spending every weekend for months going to Lowe's, Home Depot, or the local hardware store to buy stuff after you move in.  You will also be compiling a to do list of things that need to be done around the house.  And you will be making a wish list of everything you need to buy.  I thought I knew what I was getting myself into, but in reality I had not the faintest clue.  Word to the wise--if you are buying your first home, triple the amount of money you think you will need for things like buying a new refrigerator, lawnmower, and everything else.  You will quickly realize how much "stuff" you don't have that you need after you move in.

Here in the US, there has been a lot of talk lately about the state of the car industry.  The consensus is that many of the problems behind the Detroit auto industry is their unwillingness to embrace newer technologies that make cars more fuel efficient.  For the past decade or more, Detroit has embraced the SUV, large truck, or anything else that brought in a huge profit while for the most part ignoring the small, more fuel efficient car market.  Honda, Toyota, and the various other Korean and Japanese car manufactures made a fairly even mix of cars for both markets.  Now Detroit is in big trouble and the Asian companies are in a much better position to compete in the US.

In an economics class that I took in college, one lecture topic that has stayed with me concerned industries and how many companies can operate in a particular industry.  For a while I have felt strongly that the US car industry can only support 2 major US owned manufacturers.  Given the financial states of the big three--Ford, GM, and Chrysler--I suspect one will have either fold or merge with another.  Ford's current financial situation is the best of the three so I'm betting they survive intact.  GM is the larger of the other two, but it is also in the worst financial situation.  I have a feeling though that Chrysler will end up merging with either Ford or GM to continue to be a player.  There has been talk of a GM-Chrysler merger so it appears we're headed towards just two.  Only time will tell what happens.

Whether the US auto industry retools and begins focusing on the more fuel efficient vehicle remains to be seen, but I imagine they've finally seen the writing on the wall.  That wall is the future and it's unclear what the cars of tomorrow will be.  The car of today is the still your typical gas powered automobile.  It usually gets 20 to 40 miles per gallon and can be filled with gas at your local gas station.  I see the hybrid as the car bridging today and tomorrow.  Hybrids are of course still gas powered, but contain an electric engine of some sort.  They usually get 10 to 25% better gas mileage than your standard automobile.  Current examples include the Toyota Prius, Honda Insight, and the upcoming Chevrolet Volt.

The cars of tomorrow though are still somewhat of a mystery.  The hot trend at the moment is the entirely electric vehicle like the Tesla Roadster.  I like the all-electric vehicle concept because it frees us from the dependency of oil which will run out one day.  They day may not be for another 50 or 100 years, but it is coming so we should be prepared for it.  Then consider the environmental impact that these cars would have.  The cars are emission-free; although the electricity to recharge them typically comes from power plants that produce pollution.  However, the studies indicate that the power plants produce less pollution per-mile than a gasoline power vehicle which makes the electric car more desirable still.

What I dislike about the electric car is the recharge time.  To recharge an electric vehicle like the Tesla requires 3.5 hours.  I do not think it is reasonable to expect someone will drive it for 250 miles, recharge for 3.5 hours, drive again for 250 miles, recharge, and repeat until you get to your destination.  At highway speeds you're spending just as much time recharging than you are driving.  When I was in college, I had a summer job in Indiana for a couple months (I live in Georgia).  It took about 12 hours and was approximately 750 miles.  If I had to do the same drive in the Tesla, it would take me 12 hours PLUS 10.5 hours of recharging.  22.5 hours, almost and entire day worth of driving and recharging which was nearly twice as much as driving a regular car.  Perhaps future electric cars will be able to reduce the recharge time to something more reasonable.

I am not convinced that the electric vehicle is the current solution nor will it be what we will be driving 50 to 100 years from.  I see us driving alternate fuel cars, but not what you might expect.  No we will not be using natural gas powered cars, we'll be driving around in something like a hydrogen powered vehicle.  It won't be natural gas because it is a fossil fuel and not a renewable resource.  Natural gas will eventually run out like oil and isn't available in every country.  Hydrogen on the other hand is abundant.  In fact, it makes up 75% of the universe's mass.  Every country can make hydrogen so that a few countries cannot control it like oil.

The Honda FCX Clarity is likely going to be the first mass produced hydrogen powered car.  The FCX works something like this...  Hydrogen is stored in its fuel tank.  The hydrogen is pumped into a fuel cell where it is combined with oxygen.  When combined, it creates electricity which is used to drive an electric motor.  The electric motor is used to power the car's wheels.  The only emission this car produces is water.  It's hydrogen fuel tank can be filled at a hydrogen filling station.  Fueling takes the same amount of time as filling your car with gasoline.  You're back on the road and driving again--no waiting for hours like the Tesla and other electric vehicles.  I think that simple difference is what makes the hydrogen car the car of tomorrow.

The hydrogen powered car is not going to save Detroit right now, but Detroit could embrace the hydrogen powered car.  By spending their R&D on hydrogen car technology, they could position themselves as major players in the car of tomorrow.  Since it's looking more likely that my tax dollars are going to prop them up during these lean times, I hope that they have the sense to listen to their new shareholders, we the people of the United States, and give us what we demand.  We demand cars that do not depend on foreign oil.  We demand cars that do not alter our way of life.  We demand cars that have no impact on the environment.  We demand a better car.