It's been quite a while since I've blogged so I'm going to write a little about everything--old and new.  Let's start with a recap of some of the older stuff.

401k

It's finally starting to look like it has some life again.  My most recent 2Q statement had it up I think around 16% for the year.  For quick comparisons sake, the DJIA started closed '08 at 8776.39 and closed on Friday, July 24th at 9093.24.  While that may not be too impressive, the DJIA lowest for '09 was 6547.05 and we have certainly come a long way from down there.  Since the lowest point around mid March, the DJIA has gone up 2546.19 points.  It is up nearly 39% since its low.  Certainly some optimism has crept back into the market.  I really think that the magic barrier is getting back above 10,000 again.  Once the markets have reached that point, I believe almost everyone will be saying the recovery is in full swing and we're pulling ourselves out of it.  It'll probably take 4-5 years of consistent progress though before we get back up near 14,000 though.  I highly doubt we'll see the bullish markets of the dot-com era for a really long time to come.

Softsys Hosting

Nothing new to report really.  Since I haven't been doing much personal website work or anything like that for a while, I don't have much to say about them.  I've had no problems with their hosting or email going down for any appreciable time.  All is good when there is no news to report I suppose.

Car Industry

Well it looks like I got some predictions (semi) correct.  GM did end up filing for bankruptcy, but they haven't completely folded.  On the other hand, they're jettisoning quite a few of their brands to become a more profitable company focused on a few, select core brands.  Only time will tell, but I'm betting on the refocused GM to stick around for a while longer now.  The certainly won't be a major player any more and I predict some foreign company will eventually gobble them up.  That'll probably happen in another 3-5 years when they've had time to sort themselves out and get back on a firm footing.  They will have to extract themselves from the federal government first I'm guessing.  It may take a while for them to buy back that stock so they're in a position to shop themselves around.

Chrysler did in fact end up merging, but not with whom I predicted.  Fiat is a strange bedfellow to me.  I just don't see how this relationship is going to work.  Chrysler has no sense of direction and their lineup is pretty poor in my opinion.  Fiat builds small cars destined for European and other foreign markets.  They really have nothing in common.  Only time will tell if this deal will work out.  I suspect some private equity firm will buy Chrysler back when the time comes, but that's going to be years away.  Until then, Chrysler will just keep being #3 in the US.

Ford is going to survive.  Unless they misstep and fall flat on their face with their upcoming car lineups, they'll be #1 in the US for quite a while.  When I say #1 in the US, I mean between GM and Ford they'll be on top.  Foreign companies like Toyota, Honda, and VW will all eventually all bubble to the top in US auto sales.  The days when US automakers were #1 in the US and world are over.  Plain and simple.

President Obama's decision to virtually eliminate support for hydrogen cars is going to hurt the US in the long term.  Our reliance on foreign oil is deplorable and promoting "greener" technologies as a short term gap isn't helping.  I call things like hybrid's "greener" because they're not THAT much better than say a hydrogen powered vehicle.  Hybrid's still use gasoline and until we sever that umbilicle cord, we're still hooked on foreign oil.  I really wish he had looked a little farther into the future, something beyond say 5 years and his re-election campaign.  It takes roughly 5 years on a fast-track to design, test, build, and mass produce a new car line.  Less funding for hydrogen car research now likely means we're stuck with hybrids until 2015 or later.  There is one glimmer of hope and that is Shell has recently opened a second hydrogen filling station in New York.  Don't you think it is kind of ironic that Shell is starting to get interested in this technology?

New House

I bought a house.  A new house.  My first house.  It's fantastic!

I started looking back in February when I found out the stimulus package was to include a tax credit for first time home buyers.  At the time, various figures were being proposed anywhere from $7,500 up to $15,000 for buying a home.  I was really hoping for $15,000 which I believe my state senator was pushing for.  Alas I will have to "settle" for just $8,000.  Needless to say that the carrot dangled in front of me was a primary reason to finally take the plunge.  Needless to say, I was one of those people that our government hoped to get off the fence and buy a home.  Job well done!

There is one thing about buying your first home that you don't realize no matter how many people tell you.  You will be spending every weekend for months going to Lowe's, Home Depot, or the local hardware store to buy stuff after you move in.  You will also be compiling a to do list of things that need to be done around the house.  And you will be making a wish list of everything you need to buy.  I thought I knew what I was getting myself into, but in reality I had not the faintest clue.  Word to the wise--if you are buying your first home, triple the amount of money you think you will need for things like buying a new refrigerator, lawnmower, and everything else.  You will quickly realize how much "stuff" you don't have that you need after you move in.

That's the performance of my 401(k) for all of 2008.  To put things in perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 34% on the year.  The S&P 500 was down 38%.  And then when you consider the world as a whole, the global return was down 44%.  All in all, it could have been a lot worse.  I'm just glad that retirement is so far off for me that this will be just a blip on the radar.

I doubt I'll do anything to the allocation of my 401(k) except let it rebalance itself in June.  Everything in my portfolio was down between 30% and 40% for the year.  It would be a waste of time to try and move things around so that I don't lose 1% or 2% here and there.  I think that I will wait until 2010 before I move things around again.

In other news, last year I opened a savings account that pays about 4%.  Of all my "investments", it was only one of two that actually made me money on the year.  Go figure!

I not at all surprised given all the economic problems we've been having lately.  This morning I was checking my finances and decided to look at a graph of my 401(k) performance over the last year.  It was more or less holding its own until the last week when the markets took a dive.  My 401(k) is down roughly 23.5% from its yearly high back in June.  Obviously I'm not alone here and just about everyone else's 401(k) looks very similar.

It will go back up eventually and any contributions I make right now are obviously going to be worth a lot more to me in the long run.  Since the DOW is at the same place it was in 2004, it's kind of like rolling back the clock.  From 2004 up until late 2007, I believe my 401(k) gained somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-14% each year.  Not too shabby and I didn't have a financial planner to help until 2007.  Even if this downturn lasts a while, I would expect at least a mediocre 6-7% return following the current downturn.  The grass will certainly be greener when all the markets sort themselves out.